Russ Taylor, former President of International WOOD MARKETS Group
As seen in Truck Logger BC: Spring 2023
BRITISH COLUMBIA – As we moved into March 2023, there were still many headwinds facing BC’s sawmilling industry. Mill curtailments, both in lumber and pulp, have become a regular occurrence since 2022-Q3 from low lumber prices, and dwindling log and by-product volumes. As the high-cost log and (therefore) lumber producer in North America, almost all the curtailments have occurred in BC as lumber markets became over supplied. In previous articles I have discussed the major problems with BC government’s stumpage formula for logs, but I will leave that topic alone.
There are a number of key factors that have been negatively influencing the US lumber market since the middle of 2022, including high house prices coupled with a relatively low housing inventory, low builder and consumer confidence, and rising home builder cancellations. High interest and mortgage rates tofight inflation in the US and Canada have been the major cause of a slowdown in lumber demand. US mortgage rates have consistently been in the 6 to 7 per cent range since mid-2022, and it anticipated a housing market revival will require mortgage rates be closer to 5 per cent and, preferably, much lower. Lower rates are not expected until very late in the year or early 2024, so that will negatively impact housing starts (35 per cent of US lumber consumption), which I expect to be closer to (and even below) 1.2 million units in 2023 as compared to 1.55 million units in 2022.
Repair and remodelling (R&R) demand (40 per cent of US lumber demand) grew slightly in 2022 but is expected to have negative growth in 2023. Forecasters’ R&R growth ranges between minus 5 and minus 10 per cent for 2023, but I expect the R&R growth will be more favourable with a smaller negative growth, especially with very low building material prices expected to be in effect for the year.
For 2023, I expect North American lumber demand will be lower by 6-7 per cent with the first half of the year being most troublesome. I continue to “bet” against the consensus forecasts which have consistently been wrong through the pandemic; I have been following more of the contrarian view that has been incredibly accurate!
Changes in North American lumber capacity have been very significant over the last five to ten years. For example, since 2014, the US South capacity has grown by over 40 per cent due to some 60 sawmill projects (expansions and greenfield mills). In contrast, BC production has fallen by 30 per cent over the same time frame with further reductions to come. The US West and Canada East have been relatively flat with few changes in the overall industry capacity.
The growth in US South lumber capacity has been incredible. With the lowest delivered log costs in North America (and essentially the world) averaging around US$45/m3, and with 55 per cent of North American demand located in the region, sawmill expansions have been steadily growing. From 2018 to 2022, there were about 7 billion bf (11 million m3) of new capacity installations. However, there has only been a 50 per cent increase in output, meaning that with delays in start up, coupled with COVID-19 pandemic issues, there is a lot more production that is still going to come from existing projects. Data from Forisk indicates that 1.3 billion bf of sawmill capacity came online in 2022 via greenfield projects and capacity expansion projects. In 2023, Forisk anticipates an additional 1.8 billion bf of Southern sawmilling capacity to come online, with another 1.2 billion bf of capacity to be completed by the end of 2024. The takeaway message: there will be lots of incremental southern yellow pine lumber available over the next few years and this will put pressure on higher-cost operating regions like BC.
In contrast, there has been at least 1.7 billion bf of announced capacity curtailments in BC during 2022, mostly a result of increased log prices and falling lumber prices. BC mill curtailments and closures have continued in the first two months of 2023, with five pulp mills also curtailing from a lack of residual chips from sawmills. Quite unprecedented!
BC continues to be plagued by more ill-timed government policies, including old-growth deferrals, landscape planning initiatives, caribou protection, carbon capture, and tenure transfers to First Nations from existing forest licence holders. On top of these, there are continued beetle losses (mountain pine, spruce and Douglas-fir beetles) and wildfire impacts. Coupled with low prices and high log costs, BC lumber production was lower through November 2022 vs a year earlier by 13.7 per cent-a drop of almost 1.2 billion bf.
In the US market, Canada represents only 83 per cent of US imports, where Europe now has a 12.5 per cent market share (led by Germany with 6.2 per cent; Sweden with 2.6 per cent and Romania at 1.7 per cent). Between 2010 and 2016, Canada averaged more than 96 per cent of total US imports each year.
The low-grade lumber market for BC in China is almost finished, as Canada’s export volumes have eroded from 5.6 million m3 in 2013 to well under 900,000 m3 in 2022. Japan’s exports were lower from European competition in 2022 but should be steadier in 2023.
After two spectacular years in 2021 and 2022 where the benchmark W-SPF 2×4 #2&Better (FOB BC mill) lum ber prices averaged US$869/Mbf and US$776/Mbf respectively (and before US import duties), prices collapsed in 2022-Q4 where they have been below US$500/Mbf and, unfortunately, be low US$400 for most of the time into March 2023. With BC SPF mill costs typically over US$500/Mbf during this time, this is why BC sawmills have been curtailing.
As stated in my January report, I still expect the average W-SPF 2×4 #2&Better lumber price for 2023 to be near US$475/Mbf (FOB BC mill; US$300/m3; -US$385/m3 delivered to US east coast ports). However, with that forecasted price now about in the middle of the consensus (and the consensus typically being wrong), I now expect prices to average lower than US$475/Mbf in 2023. This is not good news for BC sawmills!
Russ Taylor, President, Russ Taylor Global (former President of International WOOD MARKETS Group) Website: russtaylorglobal.com
