REPORT FORCASTS WINTER RECREATIONAL MARKETS IN BC

BRITISH COLUMBIA – According to the recently released Royal LePage Winter Recreational Property Report, home prices in Canada’s popular ski regions¹ remained virtually flat year over year in the first nine months of 2024. Nationally, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 0.4 per cent year over year to $948,800. This specific segment of the market mirrors trends seen in urban markets across the country, which have posted stagnant buying and selling activity amidst higher borrowing costs. Activity and prices are expected to regain momentum in 2025, as lending conditions continue to improve.

“Much like the mainstream urban housing market, sales activity in Canada’s recreational regions has been treading water over the past year. The time it takes to sell a property has been longer than normal over the past year; what we call ‘days on market.’ Yet, recreational home prices have remained stable as low supply balanced sluggish buyer demand,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage. “This is a testament to the resilience of the winter recreational segment, even under the pressure of the 2023-2024 high interest rate environment, which has caused many buyers in all areas of the market to pull back from their purchase plans.

The characteristics of winter recreational markets across the country vary from one region to the next. While home sales were down in Ontario, Alberta and most of British Columbia’s ski regions, sales were up on a year-over-year basis in a majority of markets in the province of Quebec.

Despite the long-awaited cuts to borrowing costs, reaction to decreased interest rates has been modest thus far in the recreational real estate segment.

“Although recreational property owners are less likely to have a monthly mortgage payment when compared to owners in cities, the impact of elevated rates these past two years have not left them unscathed. Many cabin and chalet buyers have a mortgage on their primary residence, which has left some cash-strapped and hesitant to move forward on the purchase of a vacation home. In some cases, owners and investors have had to downsize or offload recreational homes. In a time when short-term rentals are facing increasingly stringent regulatory measures, leasing your winter property to offset expenses is not the straightforward solution it once was,” said Soper.

BRITISH COLUMBIA

In the first nine months of the year, the median price of a single-family detached home in British Columbia’s popular ski regions decreased 2.6 per cent year over year to $1,729,200, while the median price of a condominium also decreased 2.6 per cent to $477,500. In the province’s recreational market, the median price of a single-family detached home is forecast to increase 8.5 per cent over the next 12 months.

Whistler

The median price of a single-family detached home in Whistler’s recreational property market for the first nine months of the year decreased 3.0 per cent year over year to $3,569,100, while the median price of a condominium decreased 12.4 per cent to $583,600. For those looking to buy a house or condominium slopeside or at mountain base, prices typically start at $3,000,000 and $500,000, respectively. Total sales were down 25.0 per cent year over year in the region.

“The Whistler market has experienced less demand and growing inventory lately, tilting market conditions in favour of the buyer and pushing prices down. Though we have experienced less snowfall than in previous years, buyers are still attracted to the region for the prolonged biking season,” said Frank Ingham, associate broker, Royal LePage Sussex. “While the recent changes to the capital gains tax inclusion rate did not result in a sudden rush of transactions in most other markets, Whistler was a rare exception. Shortly after the announcement, I worked with multiple clients who became highly motivated to make a quick sale prior to the new legislation coming into effect. The increase to the capital gains inclusion rate was the catalyst for some clients to pull the trigger early on selling their winter property, or accept a lower offer price –  that was previously off the table – in order to move a sale along.”

Earlier this year, the B.C. government introduced stricter measures on short-term rentals. As a result of strict enforcement of rental laws, Ingham says that most clients are planning to use their recreational property for themselves and their families.

“Though lowered interest rates have given consumers greater confidence on the trajectory of the real estate market overall, many buyers remain on hold temporarily, looking ahead to additional rate cuts,” said Ingham. “Should we see another decrease this December, I expect more purchasers will jump back in. As the bottom of the market appears, many will look to get ahead of a potential surge in prices in the spring.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home in Whistler will increase 9.0 per cent over the next 12 months, as falling interest rates encourage buyers back to the market.

Mount Washington

The median price of a single-family detached home in Mount Washington’s recreational property market for the first nine months of the year increased 29.4 per cent year over year to $1,100,000, while the median price of a condominium decreased 1.1 per cent to $455,000.⁷ For those looking to buy a house or condominium slopeside or at mountain base, prices typically start at $1,000,000 and $392,000, respectively. Total sales were down 6.3 per cent year over year in the region.

“While few homes trade hands in this region in any given year, we have seen a material increase in home prices with the launch of new construction projects, specifically single-family units that start above the $1 million mark. Inventory levels and days on market have been on the rise, giving homebuyers more options to choose from,” said Val Wright, sales representative, Royal LePage In The Comox Valley. “Our market continues to see a generous portion of clients purchasing properties for short-term rental usage. Restrictions implemented by the provincial government this year do not impact the region, as land within mountain resort boundaries is often exempt under this legislation, and therefore have not curbed rental market activity. The majority of properties on Mount Washington are rented on a short-term basis when owners are not making use of their recreational homes.”

Wright noted that recent changes to the capital gains tax triggered a number of inquiries from concerned clients about their property’s value.

“Though we did not experience a great snow season last year, much like all ski resorts in British Columbia, warmer weather conditions have not had a material impact on buyer interest here. Locals on Vancouver Island continue to make up the majority of clients in our market, as skiing enthusiasts seek out the slopes of Mount Washington and the region’s all-season recreational offerings,” said Wright. “With interest rates expected to keep declining into the spring and consumer confidence in the market strengthening as a result, we expect to see a modest increase in prices next year, as demand trends upward.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home in Mount Washington will increase 2.0 per cent over the next 12 months.

Sun Peaks

The median price of a single-family detached home in Sun Peaks’ recreational property market for the first nine months of the year decreased 30.1 per cent year over year to $1,337,500, while the median price of a condominium decreased 14.3 per cent to $360,000.⁸ For those looking to buy a house or condominium slopeside or at mountain base, prices typically start at $1,748,500, and $310,000, respectively. Total sales were up 13.5 per cent year over year in the region, which is located outside Kamloops, British Columbia.

“Though there has been much frenzy over interest rates in the mainstream market, recent rate decreases have only had a modest impact on the Sun Peaks market, for now. The number of sales recorded in summer and early fall was higher in 2024 compared to the previous year. And, the average days on market has decreased slightly, signaling growing demand, though inventory remains well stocked,” said Kyle Panasuk, sales representative, Royal LePage Westwin Realty. “Despite this slow progress, it is an improvement from last year, when rising interest rates put a huge damper on home sales, and average days on market dramatically increased.”

Panasuk added that consumer demand is largely driven by local buyers from the Kamloops region. In addition to the area’s hundreds of acres of skiable land, buyers are drawn to Sun Peaks for its alpine biking, hiking and golfing amenities.

“As interest rates continue to drop into early 2025, we expect that buying and selling activity will gradually ramp up as borrowing power increases,” said Panasuk. “This will put upward pressure on prices as consumers look to secure their winter getaway home.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home in Sun Peaks will increase 5.0 per cent over the next 12 months, as lower interest rates accelerate buyer demand.

Big White

The median price of a single-family detached home in Big White’s recreational property market for the first nine months of the year decreased 13.7 per cent year over year to $1,510,000, while the median price of a condominium decreased 22.1 per cent to $413,000. For those looking to buy a house or condominium slopeside or at mountain base, prices typically start at $875,000, and $200,000, respectively. Total sales were down 1.4 per cent year over year in the region, located outside Kelowna, British Columbia.

“Despite lower borrowing rates and ample inventory, we have seen little change in the number of properties trading hands over the last year, which tells us that buyers have taken a step back to evaluate broader turbulent economic conditions. Homes have been sitting on the market for longer, which has translated into price discounts for buyers in both the detached and condominium segments,” said Amanda Cormier, sales representative, Royal LePage Kelowna. “Though reduced rates have helped to boost consumer confidence in the overall market, this has not had a meaningful impact in stimulating sales activity just yet, as most purchasers in our market don’t require a mortgage or are utilizing an alternative financing method, such as a Home Equity Line of Credit.”

Cormier added that the region continues to attract investor clients looking for properties for rental purposes, as Big White is exempt from provincial short-term rental restrictions and the foreign buyer ban. Local families will often rent out their unit during peak periods, to help offset ownership costs, and use the unit for themselves throughout the remainder of the season.

“During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw an increase in locals purchasing, as fewer families vacationed outside the country. By choosing to stay in communities like Big White, they were able to work remotely and enjoy a slower pace of life. We expect this trend to persist as remote working remains the norm in many industries,” said Cormier. “With the cost of borrowing expected to continue falling in the first half of 2025, this will coax some buyers off the sidelines as they feel greater reassurance about the economy and look to take advantage of available inventory.”

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1 Median price and sales data for 18 popular ski regions across Canada was compiled and analyzed by Royal LePage for the periods between January 1, 2024 and September 30, 2024, and January 1, 2023 and September 30, 2023. Data was sourced through local brokerages and boards in each of the surveyed regions. 2023 price data may vary from the 2023 Winter Recreational Property Report as a result of updated transaction records from local real estate boards and a modified timeframe.

Full Press Release here.