NOVEMBER MANUFACTURING STATS SHOWED BIGGEST DECLINE IN VEHICLE SALES

January 17, 2024

Despite the monthly decline, sales of motor vehicles were 26.8% higher on a year-over-year basis in November.

OTTAWA – Canadian manufacturing sales increased 1.2% to $71.7 billion in November, mainly on higher sales in the chemical (+6.6%), primary metal (+4.0%) and machinery (+4.3%) subsectors. Sales in the motor vehicle industry group (-4.0%) declined the most. On a year-over-year basis, total sales were down 0.8% in November.

Sales in constant dollars rose 1.6% in November, indicating that increased sales were driven by higher volumes as the Industrial Product Price Index fell 0.4% in November.

Sales of chemical products lead monthly increase

Following three consecutive monthly declines, sales of chemical products rose 6.6% to $5.6 billion in November, on higher volume of sales (+10.1%). Several petrochemical plants returned to normal production after shutdowns that began in September. The increase in sales of chemical products was more pronounced in the basic chemical (+11.3%) and pharmaceutical and medicine (+9.7%) industry groups. Despite the monthly gain, year-over-year sales of chemical products were down 1.1% in November.

Following three consecutive monthly declines, sales of primary metal products rose 4.0% to $5.6 billion in November, mainly on higher volumes (+3.9%). The gains were primarily attributable to higher sales of non-ferrous metals (except aluminum) (+13.8%). Prices for non-ferrous metal (except aluminum) production and processing increased 1.2% in November.

Sales of motor vehicles fell 4.0% to $5.2 billion in November, the second consecutive monthly decline. The continuation of a shutdown at a major auto assembly plant in Ontario for retooling contributed the most to the decrease. Despite the monthly decline, sales of motor vehicles were 26.8% higher on a year-over-year basis in November. Exports of motor vehicles and parts rose 1.4% in November.

Sales increase in seven provinces, led by Ontario and Quebec

Manufacturing sales increased in seven provinces in November, led by Ontario and Quebec, while New Brunswick recorded the largest decline.

In Ontario, sales increased 1.6% to $31.9 billion in November, following three consecutive monthly declines. Higher sales of basic chemicals (+37.8%) and pharmaceutical and medicine products (+26.6%) were responsible for the increase. Sales of motor vehicles posted the largest decrease, down 5.0% to $4.8 billion in November. On a year-over-year basis, total sales in Ontario were up 1.9% in November.

In Quebec, sales increased 1.2% to $17.9 billion in November, mainly on higher sales in the primary metal subsector (+5.4%) as production ramped up in many non-ferrous metal plants. The increase was partly offset by lower sales of petroleum and coal products.

Leading the provincial decline was New Brunswick, where sales fell 5.4% to $1.8 billion in November, the second consecutive monthly decrease. The decline was concentrated in the nondurable goods subsector (-7.6%). Total sales were down 16.6% year over year in November.

Total inventories continue to increase

Total inventories rose 0.5% to $124.2 billion in November, the highest level on record, driven by higher goods in process (+1.1%) and finished product (+0.6%) inventories. Higher inventories of transportation equipment (+2.3%), machinery (+2.0%) and petroleum and coal (+2.1%) led the increase.

The inventory-to-sales ratio declined from 1.74 in October to 1.73 in November. This ratio measures the time, in months, that would be required to exhaust inventories if sales were to remain at their current level.

Unfilled orders decrease

The total value of unfilled orders declined 0.8% to $101.5 billion in November, primarily due to a 2.5% decline in unfilled orders of aerospace products and parts. As 2023 neared its end, many aerospace manufacturers were filling their backlog orders, resulting in lower total unfilled orders.

Capacity utilization rate increases

The capacity utilization rate (not seasonally adjusted) for the total manufacturing sector increased from 77.6% in October to 79.5% in November, on higher production. Capacity utilization rates were up in the transportation equipment (+4.3 percentage points), chemical (+4.5 percentage points), and petroleum and coal (+2.8 percentage points) subsectors. These increases were partly offset by lower capacity utilization rates in the beverage and tobacco (-3.3 percentage points) and wood (-1.5 percentage points) subsectors.

Source: Statistics Canada

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