BLAIR QUALEY
BRITISH COLUMBIA – On the heels of a historic provincial election in which the NDP government returned to power with a razor thin majority, many British Columbians were glued to their seats last week to witness the outcome of the US Presidential Election campaign.
Over the course of any election, it’s not uncommon to hear candidates stake out a number of positions – but as we all know, what happens post-election can sometimes be a different story.
Canada’s auto sector is largely influenced by what happens south of the border and it’s fair to say that the automotive industry on both sides of the border will experience a period of uncertainty as we await the true impact of a Republican Government led by President-elect Donald Trump.
Over the course of the campaign, ‘candidate’ Trump largely condemned EVs, claiming they are being forced upon consumers. He vowed to roll back or eliminate many vehicle emissions standards under the Environmental Protection Agency.
There is the potential for Trump to defund or limit EV subsidies through executive orders or other policy actions, but it’s far too early to know whether the incoming administration will take such action.
With respect to manufacturing, the international firm, S&P Global Mobility has estimated a Trump victory could mean a shift in EV market share in the US from a planned 50 percent by 2030 to a target of 37 percent by the same year — which in reality is still significant growth from approximately 7 percent in 2023.
It’s important to note that US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations are set for vehicle model years a minimum of 18 months in advance, so it’s likely the first model year that could be impacted by any potential policy shift would be 2028. So, there would be minimal immediate impacts, but once again, it’s the uncertainty that has the potential to negatively impact future decision making or investments by automakers.
On this side of the border, 2025 will signal a federal election, and the stakes will be high. It’s anticipated that many policies associated with a Federal Liberal administration would remain status quo if re-elected – but there is a great deal of speculation about what a future Conservative government might do.
The Conservative Leader has been critical of subsidies given to corporations to promote the EV industry in Canada, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they would be eliminated. In fact, Pierre Poilievre has suggested he intends to speed up the approval process for mines, which has the potential to benefit the development of EV batteries in this country and help build out an EV supply chain.
It goes without saying that automakers and suppliers will be closely monitoring candidate platforms and potential implications, and to what extent our next federal government may accelerate the transition towards sustainable transportation or favor traditional manufacturing practices.
While the ultimate decision about who will lead this country beyond 2025 will rest with voters, the automotive sector knows we must stay adaptable and prepared for potential policy shifts as the election winds start to blow.
Blair Qualey is President and CEO of the New Car Dealers Association of BC.
