MARK MACDONALD
BRITISH COLUMBIA – Could country-wide, east-west pipelines be the thread that holds Canada together?
In 1871 Prime Minister John A. MacDonald enticed British Columbia to join the Dominion of Canada as its sixth province, with the promise of a national railway stretching from coast to coast. His “national dream” gave B.C. a solid reason to join the young country in confederation. Without that, would B.C. have become part of Canada, or might it have remained independent as a British colony? It then had more in common with American states Oregon and Washington in an area sometimes referred to as Cascadia.
It worked, and B.C. joined in.
Alberta came aboard in 1905, and has become the economic engine through which the federal government largely feeds “have-not” provinces like Quebec, which siphons off much of the equalization payments created through the oil sands, which La Belle Province holds in such disrepute.
Temperatures have been rising in Alberta for the last decade, as the federal Liberals clamped down on resources every way they could think of, through legislation and otherwise. Albertans vividly remember the first Trudeau’s grievous National Energy Plan, and current Premier Danielle Smith’s fiery comments about Justin Trudeau and his unelected Prime Ministerial successor Mark Carney continue to rise, decibel by decibel.
Smith rightly stared down Trudeau’s suggestions that Alberta energy could be a hand to play in the tariff war with the United States. Carney has now announced that he will move forward with the Liberal plan to impose strident emission reduction targets on the oil patch, as reported in the National Post. The publication quotes the independent Parliamentary Budget Officer saying that it will cap would lower Canada’s GDP by 0.39 per cent and kill some 54,400 jobs by 2032, with losses mostly in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Then this, fresh from Smith following her meeting with Carney March 20:
“At his request, I met with Prime Minister Mark Carney today. We had a very frank discussion in which I made it clear that Albertans will no longer tolerate the way we’ve been treated by the federal Liberals over the past 10 years. I provided a specific list of demands the next Prime Minister, regardless of who that is, must address within the first six months of their term to avoid an unprecedented national unity crisis.
“I also made it clear that Alberta, as owner of the resource, will not accept an export tax or restriction of Alberta’s oil and gas to the United States, and that our province is no longer agreeable to subsidizing other large provinces who are fully capable of funding themselves.
“With the federal election about to be called, I encourage all Albertans to get involved in what is likely one of the most pivotal and important elections in our nation’s history, and to support the party and candidates that have consistently advocated for freeing Alberta from federal overreach and the repeated economic attacks our province has faced from Ottawa over the past 10 years.”
Smith said in the Calgary Herald that “I think there is a real danger the new prime minister is worse than the old prime minister.”
That’s a terrifying thought for the resource sector, and government revenues would definitely suffer if that proves to be the case.
The Conservatives are squirming, as their substantial lead in the polls has evaporated, similar, some pundits suggest, to the media’s infatuation with Carney that is at least on par with the U.S. mainstream’s instant applause for Kamala Harris. Whether that is real or imagined remains to be seen, as the ballot boxes will ultimately confirm or deny.
What is real is the fact that Alberta has clearly had enough. Smith’s use of the words: “an unprecedented national unity crisis” is not by accident.
Put yourself in Alberta’s shoes. With their major industry constantly under attack by Ottawa and almost every effort to expand into European and Asian markets squelched by legislation and bureaucracy – plus the fact their tax revenue goes directly to Quebec, which won’t allow the Energy East pipeline to the Atlantic Ocean, the province has to be considering alternatives.
Namely the United States.
How easy would it be for Albertans to turn down an offer from President Donald Trump which – hypothetically – could involve the U.S. dollar at par, no restrictions on oil and gas extraction or pipelines, respect, appreciation, and, gulp, no more equalization payments. Canadian wise-man Jordan Peterson has asked these questions fervently.
No love from the rest of Canada versus open arms from Uncle Sam. Why would Alberta want to remain in Canada if the upcoming federal election results in another Liberal government led by Carney, the Liberals’ current economic architect who many believe is greener than Trudeau himself?
Or to say it another way: Why would Alberta want to stay if they’re treated so poorly by the rest of the country? That includes Premier Smith being labeled a “traitor” by other provinces as she stands for her province and doesn’t join the chorus behind the federal Liberals.
Imagine Canada without Alberta. The country’s new landscape would include a giant diastema in the middle of its yawning border, cutting off B.C. in the process.
Impossible? Keep listening to Smith’s measured words.
Ottawa is going to have to give Alberta some very good reasons, and respect, to continue on in confederation. Pipelines could be the new “national dream” as far as Alberta is concerned. “Give us pipelines to the Pacific and Atlantic if you want us to stay.”
Mark MacDonald writes for the Business Examiner News Group in British Columbia. mark@businessexaminer.ca
