Interprovincial Migration Falls To Multi-Decade Low
SIMON PHILP
VICTORIA – According to BC Check-Up: Live, an annual report by the Chartered Professional Accountants of British Columbia (CPABC) on demographic and affordability trends across the province, Greater Victoria added 8,059 new residents in 2023, bringing the total population to 434,429.
Victoria’s population growth slowed to 1.9 per cent in 2023,” noted Simon Philp, FCPA, FCMA, Market Vice President at CIBC. “We actually had the lowest growth rate amongst B.C.’s largest metropolitan areas and were near the bottom Canada-wide.”
The bulk of Greater Victoria’s population growth in 2023 came from international migration, as the region welcomed 6,610 people from other countries. New residents arriving from other parts of B.C. (1,796 net residents) and other provinces (754 net residents) also contributed to population growth. The latter marked a significant drop in interprovincial migration to the region, which fell 83.0 per cent year-over-year to the lowest level recorded since 2002.
“The sharp decline in interprovincial migration highlights that people are increasingly looking to more affordable parts of the country,” noted Philp. “It might surprise some to know that new housing construction has done a reasonable job keeping up with population growth over the last 5 years.”
From 2018 to 2023, Greater Victoria’s population grew by 37,320 people, while the number of housing units completed was 18,529. That translates to 0.50 completed units per new resident, which compares favourably to the total number of dwellings per resident recorded in the 2021 census (0.47). New homes are smaller on average however, with attached units such as apartments making up 82.2 per cent of total housing completes in 2023, compared to 68.1 per cent in 2018.
“The shift towards higher-density housing has allowed us to build supply more quickly, especially during the last couple years when the construction industry has faced a number of challenges,” noted Philp. “It hasn’t been enough to keep housing affordable, though, as demand has increased throughout the province.”
The benchmark price for a single-family home in Victoria was $1.13 million in June 2024, down 1.5 per cent from June 2023 but up 45.8 per cent from June 2019. The benchmark price for an apartment was $559,500, effectively flat from one year earlier, but still 35.3 per cent higher compared to June 2019 prices.
In the rental market, the average rent for a one-bedroom apartment was $1,427 in 2023, up 6.4 per cent year-over-year. Conversely, the average rental rate for larger units in Greater Victoria with three or more bedrooms fell 4.0 per cent in 2023, to $2,089 per month.
“Building more homes will remain a key policy objective to help improve affordability in Greater Victoria,” concluded Philp. “New apartment buildings that can leverage existing infrastructure are a key part of that strategy.”
Source: CPABC
